Is the Past Really Prologue?

<p><em></em></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-huojod-EDSk/YXrfRkfh3OI/AAAAAAABXQQ/YfLUCNrvhRk_9pkVzU_twZAynLXDeCfBQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1200/Vincenzo%2BGiovannini%2B-%2BVia%2BAppia%2Ball%2527altezza%2Bdel%2BIV%2BMiglio.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="1200" height="380" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-huojod-EDSk/YXrfRkfh3OI/AAAAAAABXQQ/YfLUCNrvhRk_9pkVzU_twZAynLXDeCfBQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h380/Vincenzo%2BGiovannini%2B-%2BVia%2BAppia%2Ball%2527altezza%2Bdel%2BIV%2BMiglio.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vincenzo_Giovannini_Via_Appia_all%27altezza_del_IV_Miglio.jpg" target="_blank"><i>Via Appia at the height of Quarto Miglio</i></a>, Vincenco Giovannini, 1884 (Wikimedia Commons, public domain)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><em><br /><strong><br /></strong></em><p></p><p></p><blockquote><em><strong>“The less a man knows about the past and the present, the more insecure must prove to be his judgement of the future.”</strong> — Sigmund Freud, 1927</em></blockquote><p></p><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"><br /></pre></div><div><hr /></div><p><br /></p><p>There are days when life comes at you fast.</p><p>Days when it feels as if we’re being pummeled with news and developments. It’s hard to keep up—overwhelming, even.</p><p>We seem to be living with the results of our constantly evolving technology that is increasingly infringing on humanity. </p><p>Where do we turn?</p><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"> </pre></div><p>Dr. Conrad Gessner, a physician, was one of the first people to raise a concern. He was respected by his colleagues and his professionalism made him a serious thinker. </p><p>So when he warned us about the effects of information overload, the world took note. In one of his five books, he described how the modern world overwhelmed people with data and that the human mind would be confused and irreparably damaged if something wasn’t done. </p><p>Today, as we’re in the midst of oversaturated algorithms, conspiracy theories, and constant interruptions from notifications, we see how Dr. Gessner’s early warnings were real.</p><p>We bemoan the unprecedented risks of living in a digital world that doesn’t seem to have an off switch. We look for digital detox opportunities and quiet spaces. This unique problem must have unique solutions. </p><p>You might be wondering how things turned out for Dr. Gessner. Well, he took his own advice to heart: he never once used e-mail and didn’t even own a computer. But he wasn’t a Luddite.</p><p>You see, his landmark book was the <em>Bibliotheca universalis</em>, and it was published in 1545. For Conrad Gessner the physician, naturalist, philologist and bibliographer wasn’t concerned about Facebook updates, selfies, text messages, emails, or even the Internet itself.</p><p>He was warning the world about the impending flood of information in “<strong><a href="https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3228379/blair%202003.pdf">confusing and harmful abundance</a></strong>” that was about to be unleashed with the advent of Gutenberg’s printing press. </p><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"> </pre></div><h2><strong>Other Early Skeptics</strong></h2><p>Socrates famously <strong><a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/files/1636/1636-h/1636-h.htm#2H_4_0002">warned</a></strong> Phaedrus against writing because it would “create forgetfulness in the learners’ souls, because they will not use their memories.” </p><p>In the 1700s, the French statesman <strong><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillaume-Chr%C3%A9tien_de_Lamoignon_de_Malesherbes">Malesherbes</a></strong> railed against the trend of getting news in print, arguing that it socially isolated readers and detracted from the spiritually uplifting group practice of getting news from the pulpit. </p><p>We’ve been through these arguments before, and yet we still seem to find our way back to them through modern technology. The same principles apply, even though the tools are more modern.</p><p> </p><p></p><div><hr /></div><blockquote><p><em><strong>“Life is divided into three periods: past, present, and future. Of these, the present is short, the future is doubtful, the past is certain.”</strong> — Seneca, c. 55</em></p></blockquote><div><hr /></div><p><br /></p><p>The point is that while we need to be aware of our past and present, we ought not to view the future as a dystopian certainty. Gessner, Socrates, and Malesherbes warned against a future that seemed unthinkable to them. And yet, their future was no more a foregone conclusion than ours is.</p><p>They look silly to us now, but to themselves, they were making logical predictions based on their observations of the present.</p><p>Now bring yourself back to our present. With the major concerns and conflicts we see today, how are we shaping our future? How much of it is met with Chicken Little the-sky-is-falling fearmongering?</p><p>Conversely, when do we see leaders showing a path forward, with a shared vision for an improved life, driven by promising aspirations?</p><p>Every leader has the power to shape the future, informed by the past. The question is whether we lead people to that eventuality with hope or with fear.</p><p>Whichever one we choose, the outcome may be drastically different.</p><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"> </pre></div><p>Thanks, and I’ll see you on the internet.</p><p><br /></p><div><hr /></div><p>The related episode of <em><strong>Timeless Leadership</strong></em> (released every Thursday) is now available. Our guest is Kate O’Neill, author of <em><strong><a href="https://amzn.to/3bbGUSB">A Future So Bright: How Strategic Optimism Can Restore Our Humanity and Save Our Planet</a></strong></em>.</p><p><br /><iframe frameborder="0" height="170px" loading="lazy" scrolling="no" src="https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/timeless-leadership/realism-Rwdft57xQj2/embed/" style="min-width: 100%; width: 1px;" width="100%"></iframe></p><p></p><div><br /></div><div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><hr /></div><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">👉 Premium Members receive an additional related essay and the audio version of it, plus curated links, stories, and audio and book recommendations every Friday.<br /></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: center;">Join the club by signing up below:</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: center;"><iframe data-dashlane-frameid="3639" frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://www.timelesstimely.com/embed" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-color: rgb(238, 238, 238); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; max-height: 450px; max-width: 100%;" width="480"></iframe></div></div>

Is the Past Really Prologue?

Via Appia at the height of Quarto Miglio , Vincenco Giovannini, 1884 (Wikimedia Commons, public domain) “The less a man knows about the past...

Read more »

The Basis of the Best Relationships

<p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5Ohr-PKqOR8/YXcKgHmxa5I/AAAAAAABXLw/fMQtR4mBjskKO3kWIJuQt2qnTF77hMsBgCLcBGAsYHQ/s827/Frank%2BGraham%2B-%2BBest%2BFriends.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="551" data-original-width="827" height="426" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5Ohr-PKqOR8/YXcKgHmxa5I/AAAAAAABXLw/fMQtR4mBjskKO3kWIJuQt2qnTF77hMsBgCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h426/Frank%2BGraham%2B-%2BBest%2BFriends.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Best_Friends_36x44_ac_Frank_Graham_1995.jpg" target="_blank">Best Friends</a></i> by Frank Graham, 1995 (<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en" target="_blank">CC BY-SA 4.0</a> — Wikipedia)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><p></p><div class="preformatted-block" data-pm-slice="1 1 []"><pre class="text"></pre></div><blockquote><p><em><strong>“A broken friendship may be soldered but will never be sound.”</strong> — Thomas Fuller, 1732</em></p></blockquote><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"> </pre></div><div><hr /></div><p><em><strong>Timeless & Timely</strong> has <a href="https://www.timelesstimely.com/s/audio">audio versions</a> of the posts for <a href="https://www.timelesstimely.com/subscribe">Premium subscribers</a>. We’ve opened this one to the public so you can decide if you’d prefer listening rather than (or in addition to) reading: </em><a class="button primary" href="https://www.timelesstimely.com/p/best-relationships-audio">The Basis of the Best Relationships</a></p><div><hr /></div><p><br /></p><p>Who’s your go-to friend for any occasion?</p><p>That friend who makes you smile, gives you sound advice, and who would drop everything in an instant if you found yourself in a crisis.</p><p>Once you have that person pictured in your mind, I’d like you to answer this: what is it about them that makes you feel that way?</p><p>You’ve probably known them for a while; maybe your whole life. They’ve shown up for you before: they came through when you’ve needed them and gave something when you were lacking.</p><p>Ultimately, you trust this person.</p><p><br /></p><div><hr /></div><h2><strong>A Friend in Need</strong></h2><p>The proverb “a friend in need is a friend indeed” is one that rolls off the tongue, but have you stopped to consider what it means?</p><p>If looked at cynically, it could mean that someone who needs help is suddenly in need of a friend to help them out.</p><p>But I like looking at it from the other direction: meaning that a person who helps you in your hour of need is reliable and therefore worthy of your friendship.<br /><br /></p><div><hr /></div><blockquote><p><em><strong>“By mutual confidence and mutual aid<br />Great deeds are done, and great discoveries made.” </strong>— Homer, 8th century BC</em></p></blockquote><div><hr /></div><p><br />That reliability of your friend, the confidence you place in him — those attributes don’t appear suddenly. They’re the result of consistent and repeated actions over time, like callouses grown from a consistent tug of war, an endless back-and-forth of give and take as one kindness is repaid by another.</p><p>Ralph Waldo Emerson tells us “the only way to have a friend is to be one,” and we know the friends who put in the same level of work and commitment that we put into our friendships. If the teams are imbalanced in that tug of war, one side loses balance and falls back on itself.</p><p>In his <em>Nichomachean Ethics</em>, Aristotle wrote of the virtue that friendship is, and how some friendships were born of utility or of pleasure; they last when each of the friends is equally useful or pleasurable to the other.<br /><br /></p><div><hr /></div><blockquote><p><em><strong>“We cherish our friends not for their ability to amuse us but for ours to amuse them.”</strong> — Evelyn Waugh, 1963</em></p></blockquote><div><hr /></div><p><br />But for Aristotle, the key to true friendship was to move beyond necessities and instead to focus on virtue itself:</p><blockquote><p><em><strong>“Friendship being divided into these kinds, bad men will be friends for the sake of pleasure or of utility, being in this respect like each other, but good men will be friends for their own sake, i.e., in virtue of their goodness. These then are friends without qualification; the others are friends incidentally and through a resemblance to these.”</strong></em></p></blockquote><p>But knowing that you’re paired with another good person takes time—that give-and-take of friendship that Emerson echoed two millennia later. Aristotle reminds us:</p><blockquote><p><em><strong>“Nor can they admit each other to friendship or be friends until each has been found lovable and been trusted by each. Those who quickly show the marks of friendship to each other wish to be friends. But they are not friends unless both are lovable and know the fact, for a wish for friendship may arise quickly, but friendship does not.”</strong></em></p></blockquote><p><br /></p><p>Ah, there it is. The magic word that undergirds all relationships.</p><p>Trust.</p><p>Trust is the basis of all thriving relationships; lack of it is the decay that rots them away.</p><p>Without trust, you have nothing.</p><p><br /></p><p></p><p>Thanks, and I’ll see you on the internet.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><br /></figure></div><div><hr /></div><p>The latest episode of <em><strong>Timeless Leadership</strong></em> is up; we were joined by Margot Bloomstein, author of <em><strong><a href="https://amzn.to/2Za1SPa">Trustworthy: How the Smartest Brands Beat Cynicism and Bridge the Trust Gap</a></strong></em>.</p><p>More here:</p><p><iframe frameborder="0" height="170px" loading="lazy" scrolling="no" src="https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/timeless-leadership/trust-OFPWbtM1YKk/embed/" style="min-width: 100%; width: 1px;" width="100%"></iframe><br /></p><p><br /></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><hr /></div><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">👉 Premium Members receive an additional related essay, plus curated links and stories, and audio and book recommendations every Friday.<br /></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: center;">Join the club by signing up below:</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: center;"><iframe data-dashlane-frameid="1192" frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://www.timelesstimely.com/embed" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-color: rgb(238, 238, 238); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; max-height: 450px; max-width: 100%;" width="480"></iframe></div>

The Basis of the Best Relationships

  Best Friends by Frank Graham, 1995 ( CC BY-SA 4.0 — Wikipedia) “A broken friendship may be soldered but will never be sound.” — Thomas ...

Read more »

Leadership and the Dog in the Night-Time

<em><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7DBa5RLLVEA/YXcIhpfa7eI/AAAAAAABXLo/Bic_l702Us0T0llabh7eQ49NyEmIPr_9gCLcBGAsYHQ/s2000/Paget%2B-%2BFull%2Bportrait.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1537" data-original-width="2000" height="492" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7DBa5RLLVEA/YXcIhpfa7eI/AAAAAAABXLo/Bic_l702Us0T0llabh7eQ49NyEmIPr_9gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h492/Paget%2B-%2BFull%2Bportrait.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em style="text-align: left;">Portrait of Sherlock Holmes</em><span style="text-align: left;"> (discarded) by Sidney Paget, n.d. (public domain)</span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></em><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"> </pre></div><blockquote><p><em><strong>“You know my method. It is founded upon the observation of trifles.” </strong>— Arthur Conan Doyle, 1891</em></p></blockquote><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"> </pre></div><div><hr /></div><p><em><strong>Timeless & Timely</strong> has audio versions of the posts for you to enjoy. They are available to <a href="https://www.timelesstimely.com/subscribe">Premium subscribers</a>. This one is available here: </em><a class="button primary" href="https://www.timelesstimely.com/p/leadership-dog-night-audio">Leadership & the Dog in the Nighttime</a></p><div><hr /></div><p><br /></p><p>Children’s imaginations are the playground for creative types.</p><p>Think about it: if we can imagine something, we can commit it to paper. And children are wonderful vessels for imagination.</p><p>They’re also refreshingly frank in their statements, and without the first smidgeon of shame, diplomacy, or regret, they’ll blurt out exactly what they think.</p><p>Obviously, we can’t regress to child-like behavior, but perhaps we can channel some of our inner child to capture the wonder that was so plentiful in our childhood years.</p><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"> </pre></div><p>I grew up in a time when comic books were a normal and regular reading option. We didn’t have to go to a specialty comics store; we saw them displayed at newsstands and on carousel-style racks at the supermarket, readily available as an impulse purchase.</p><p>And inside the back cover of those comics were a series of classified ads—basically a display page of items you’d find at a joke shop or the Chuck E. Cheese rewards counter: Sea Monkeys, a Charles Atlas exercise brochure, or the inevitable X-ray specs.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uaEtqws27To/YXcG6__uYjI/AAAAAAABXLg/kIbHpWj0j1EdFNFPWFYoA9ovdJoPBuWLACLcBGAsYHQ/s522/X-Ray%2BGlasses.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="397" data-original-width="522" height="486" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uaEtqws27To/YXcG6__uYjI/AAAAAAABXLg/kIbHpWj0j1EdFNFPWFYoA9ovdJoPBuWLACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h486/X-Ray%2BGlasses.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>After reading a comic book about Superman and his amazing power of X-ray vision, I’d be captivated by the idea of seeing through solid objects. Now, I was never courageous enough to spend my hard-earned allowance on superpowers that were promised without any kind of serious technology (I <em>was</em> practical, after all), and besides, I wondered, what did the “De Luxe Model” offer for twice the price? Would I only be able to see halfway through things with the standard Slimline version?</p><p>But the idea of seeing things that other people couldn’t see appealed to me. It still does.</p><p>When you think about it, that’s what leaders do: they take note of things that mere mortals aren’t aware of—or at least aren’t willing to spend time on.</p><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"> </pre></div><h2><strong>Eliminating the Impossible</strong></h2><p>Consider Sherlock Holmes.</p><p>In the very first Sherlock Holmes short story, the detective asked Dr. Watson how many steps led up to their sitting room. Watson, who had trodden up and down them some hundreds of times, said he had no idea.</p><p>Holmes scolded him, saying, “You see but you do not observe. The distinction is clear.”</p><p>The answer, by the way, is <strong>seventeen</strong>.</p><p>How many times are we presented with analytics or data, but we don’t appreciate what they’re telling us? We miss the true impact because we’re not focused on the right thing—or perhaps because we’re distracted by something else.</p><p>Sherlock Holmes gets credit for being a master of deduction, but in order to excel at drawing conclusions, he needed to be a master of preparation and of observation. He paid attention to things, however small, that other people did not. That made him a valuable consultant to his clients.</p><p>And so it is that we need to prepare our eyes, ears, and minds to understand how our business and our teams are doing. And in that preparation, we’re acting with <strong><a href="https://www.timelesstimely.com/p/intentionality?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web" target="_blank">intention</a></strong>.</p><div class="embedded-post-wrap" data-attrs="{"id":42035794,"url":"https://www.timelesstimely.com/p/intentionality","publication_id":28922,"publication_name":"Timeless & Timely","publication_logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6b0b5664-8343-4c87-a050-1a89626389ec_1280x1280.png","title":"Intentionality","truncated_body_text":"This week on Timeless Leadership, the topic is Intentionality. We go through our days, flitting from one meeting to the next, firing off emails, and swatting down Slack messages. But as we do so, are we spending much time really thinking about things?","date":"2021-10-01T03:13:31.928Z","like_count":5,"comment_count":2,"bylines":[{"id":429,"name":"Scott Monty","photo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9ea180a7-4ad6-4937-b37a-52810591c920_2717x2531.jpeg","bio":"Strategic communications and leadership advisor inspiring people to be better communicators, leaders, and humans. First executive at Ford to lead digital communications. Soothing voice available for hire.","profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-25T06:21:53.329Z","publicationUsers":[{"id":1595,"user_id":429,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":28922,"name":"Timeless & Timely","subdomain":"scottmonty","custom_domain":"www.timelesstimely.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"This is a time machine. Time is money, and money is the store of other people’s time and effort.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6b0b5664-8343-4c87-a050-1a89626389ec_1280x1280.png","author_id":429,"theme_var_background_pop":"#2879af","created_at":"2020-02-02T20:45:53.185Z","rss_website_url":null,"email_from_name":"Scott Monty","copyright":"Scott Monty Strategies","founding_plan_name":"Timeless Supporter","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false}}],"twitter_screen_name":"ScottMonty","is_guest":false}]}"><div class="embedded-post-meta"><br /></div></div><p>In “<strong>The Adventure of Silver Blaze</strong>,” Sherlock Holmes finds a wax vesta half burned and half-buried in the ground, so covered with mud that it looked at first like a little chip of wood.</p><blockquote><p>   <em><strong>“I cannot think how I came to overlook it,” said the Inspector, with an expression of annoyance.</strong></em></p><p><em><strong>   “It was invisible, buried in the mud. I only saw it because I was looking for it.”</strong></em></p></blockquote><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"> </pre></div><p>You’ve heard the phrase “a canary in a coal mine.” This is a metaphor for advanced warning of some danger. It originated from the times when miners used to carry caged canaries while at work. If there was any methane or carbon monoxide in the mine, the canary, being smaller and more sensitive to minor changes in the atmosphere, would die before the levels of the gas reached those hazardous to humans.</p><p>Leading indicators can help determine a broader impact. Your industry probably has leading indicators as well, from which you can infer other impacts.</p><p>For example, when I worked at Ford, we knew that sales of Ford’s F-Series trucks were tied to the performance of the U.S. economy overall. The thinking is that since many small business owners and contractors buy the F-Series (the best-selling vehicle in the United States), they’re tied to home construction, which in turn is a factor in the economy.</p><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"> </pre></div><h2><strong>The Curious Incident</strong></h2><p>While you’re busy drawing conclusions from the observable data, at the same time, what you’re <em><strong>not</strong></em> measuring can be more important than what you <em><strong>are</strong></em> measuring.</p><p>Back at work in “Silver Blaze,” Sherlock Holmes gave the local inspector a handy piece of advice that we can all learn from. As Holmes prepared to leave, the baffled Inspector Gregory asked,</p><blockquote><p>   <em><strong>“Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention?”</strong></em></p><p><em><strong>   “To the curious incident of the dog in the nighttime.”</strong></em></p><p><em><strong>   “The dog did nothing in the night-time.”</strong></em></p><p><em><strong>   “That was the curious incident,” remarked Sherlock Holmes.</strong></em></p></blockquote><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"> </pre></div><p>The point Holmes was making was that the intruder at the stables was someone who was familiar to the dog, which is why the canine didn’t make a ruckus during the course of the crime.</p><p>It’s the same concept as a black hole. Scientists can’t observe black holes directly. Telescopes that detect x-rays, light, or other forms of electromagnetic radiation can’t pick up a black hole. Instead, scientists study the <em>effect</em> of black holes on other matter nearby. Certain movements or the absence of something they were expecting can indicate the presence of a black hole.</p><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"> </pre></div><p>Consider how you’re measuring progress your team is making after implementing a change. In addition to measuring the things that happen, another way is to measure what <em>doesn’t</em> happen: perhaps there are fewer calls to your customer service department, fewer returns at the store, or a shift of interactions with customers from phone to messenger bots. All of these indicate a change and can result in lower costs.</p><p>When dealing with a staff that is working remotely, you might pay attention to the things that people don’t say on calls or who aren’t speaking up. If you know your team well, these behaviors might indicate issues with which they’re struggling, and you can use that as an opportunity to check on them.</p><p>Indicators and clues aren’t always obvious — the proof of your success might not come directly from your own work, but from the impacts of how you notice what’s not there and how you treat other people.</p><p>You just need to know where to look.</p><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"> </pre></div><p>Thanks, and I’ll see you on the internet.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><br /></figure></div><div><hr /></div><p>As a follow up to this topic, we spoke with Len Herstein, author of <em><a href="https://amzn.to/2YPJ7jV">Be Vigilant! Strategies to Stop Complacency, Improve Performance and Safeguard Success</a></em>, and talked about Attentiveness.</p><p><br /></p><iframe src="https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/timeless-leadership/attentiveness-OX6P1wGTium/embed/" height="170px" width="100%" style="width: 1px; min-width: 100%;" loading="lazy" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><hr /></div><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">👉 Premium Members receive an additional related essay, plus curated links and stories, and audio and book recommendations every Friday.<br /></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: center;">Join the club by signing up below:</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: center;"><iframe data-dashlane-frameid="1141" frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://www.timelesstimely.com/embed" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-color: rgb(238, 238, 238); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; max-height: 450px; max-width: 100%;" width="480"></iframe></div>

Leadership and the Dog in the Night-Time

Portrait of Sherlock Holmes  (discarded) by Sidney Paget, n.d. (public domain) “You know my method. It is founded upon the observation of t...

Read more »

Leadership in an Uncertain Future

<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-97GkUpqiNP0/YWR0PTmAAsI/AAAAAAABWh0/tssNPrVAhzQ90Vu4VVPrJNia5VLc2kF3wCLcBGAsYHQ/s1200/Thomas%2BCole%2B-%2BThe_Course_of_Empire%2B3%2B-%2BThe%2BConsummation.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1200" height="434" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-97GkUpqiNP0/YWR0PTmAAsI/AAAAAAABWh0/tssNPrVAhzQ90Vu4VVPrJNia5VLc2kF3wCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h434/Thomas%2BCole%2B-%2BThe_Course_of_Empire%2B3%2B-%2BThe%2BConsummation.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><figcaption class="image-caption" data-pm-slice="1 1 ["captionedImage",null]" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Course_of_Empire_(paintings)#/media/File:Cole_Thomas_The_Consummation_The_Course_of_the_Empire_1836.jpg">The Course of Empire - The Consummation of the Empire</a></em> by Thomas Cole, 1836 (public domain - Wikipedia)</span></figcaption><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="preformatted-block"><pre class="text"> </pre></div><div><hr /></div><p><em><strong>Timeless & Timely</strong> has audio versions of the posts for you to enjoy. They are available to <a href="https://www.timelesstimely.com/subscribe">Premium subscribers</a>. This one is available here: </em><a class="button primary" href="https://www.timelesstimely.com/p/leadership-uncertain-future-audio">▶️ Leadership in an Uncertain Future</a></p><div><hr /></div><p> </p><blockquote><em><strong>“The best-laid schemes of mice and men<br /></strong></em><em><strong>      Go oft awry,<br /></strong></em><em><strong>And leave us nothing but grief and pain,<br /></strong></em><em><strong>     For promised joy!” </strong></em> <em>— Robert Burns, 1785</em></blockquote><p></p><div class="preformatted-block"><label class="hide-text" contenteditable="false"></label><pre class="text"><br /></pre></div><p>Did you ever have the perfect event planned, only for everything to go awry?</p><p>A product launch, a surprise celebration for an important milestone, a romantic meal. In your mind’s eye, you envisioned everything going off flawlessly, almost scripted like a scene out of Hollywood.</p><p>Then…WHAM!</p><p>Reality hits, and it’s not pretty. A supplier doesn’t come through with essential parts for your launch, a message doesn’t make it to the honoree in time, the power goes out in the middle of cooking dinner.</p><p>What do you do?</p><p>Before you head in any one direction, the first step is simple: acknowledge the reality of your newfound situation.</p><p><br /></p><div><hr /></div><blockquote><p><em><strong>“Very well. So the universe is not quite as you thought it was. You’d better rearrange your beliefs, then. Because you certainly can't rearrange the universe.”</strong> — Isaac Asimov, 1941</em></p></blockquote><div><hr /></div><p><br /></p><p>Every leader needs a plan. But they also need backup plans.</p><p>Better leaders know it’s not enough to have a plan. They’ve seen things go sideways before. And like any self-aware person, they know that it could happen to them.</p><p><br /></p><p>Take General Dwight Eisenhower for example.</p><p>He prepared his troops as best he could for Operation Overlord (aka the D-Day invasion). He sent this letter to his men:</p><blockquote><p><strong>“You are about to embark upon a great crusade, toward which we have striven these many months. The eyes of the world are upon you. We will accept nothing less than victory! Good luck!”</strong></p></blockquote><p>He also built their confidence:</p><blockquote><p><strong>“This operation is planned as a victory, and that’s the way it’s going to be. We’re going down there, and we’re throwing everything we have into it, and we’re going to make it a success.”</strong></p></blockquote><p>But Ike knew that there were variables that were out of his control: the weather, the number of enemy awaiting them, and scores of other things. So he prepared a note in the event of a catastrophic loss that day:</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-N8_P6vVLCfw/YWR047Nk8nI/AAAAAAABWh8/QSvXLosW6cs_6wJGXRF8LjuMEKiNbw3bwCLcBGAsYHQ/s936/Ike%2BLetter.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="936" data-original-width="600" height="640" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-N8_P6vVLCfw/YWR047Nk8nI/AAAAAAABWh8/QSvXLosW6cs_6wJGXRF8LjuMEKiNbw3bwCLcBGAsYHQ/w410-h640/Ike%2BLetter.jpeg" width="410" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="text-align: left;">Image credit: </span><a href="https://www.docsteach.org/documents/document/in-case-of-failure" style="text-align: left;">The National Archives</a></span></i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><br /></p><p></p><blockquote><p><strong>“Our landings in the Cherbourg-Havre area have failed to gain a satisfactory foothold and I have withdrawn the troops. My decision to attack at this time and place was based on the best information available. The troops, the air and the Navy did all that bravery and devotion to duty could do. If any blame or fault attaches to the attempt it is mine alone.”</strong></p></blockquote><p>The Allies’ victory was not assured that day, but after many casualties, they succeeded. Ike did not need to send that admission of failure—written with nerves so jangly that he misdated the note as July 5 instead of June 5.</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div><hr /></div><blockquote><p><em><strong>“Life is divided into three periods: past, present, and future. Of these, the present is short, the future is doubtful, the past is certain.” </strong>— Seneca, 49</em></p></blockquote><div><hr /></div><p> </p><p>Seneca’s observation is an important one: nothing in the future—<em>nothing</em>—is certain. Leaders need to have contingency plans and to adapt to the changing market forces, on the fly if necessary.</p><p>So back to the initial example. You find yourself in an unexpected circumstance.</p><p>Maybe you had planned a series of promotions for your company on Facebook or Instagram this week. The big Facebook outage was a surprise—certainly to the folks at Facebook, some of whom couldn’t even access their buildings.</p><p>What did you do instead?</p><p>Some people flocked to Twitter. Others turned inward and took an opportunity to enjoy some relative serenity.</p><p>But the prepared leaders likely knew that it isn’t wise to rely on platforms you don’t control. Building on rented land is a guaranteed disaster. They had their own platforms, their own way to contact their communities. They didn’t depend on Facebook’s availability, nor on its capricious algorithms.</p><p>Facebook itself is in need of a contingency plan. The social media giant has been on top for so long, it seems otherworldly to consider it on the decline. But <strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/04/technology/facebook-files.html?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20211004&instance_id=41978&nl=dealbook&regi_id=75113674&segment_id=70609&te=1&user_id=d65752cb66270b61c489c6eaa53f121c">Facebook is showing signs of weakness</a></strong>, and absent its need to pivot, users ought to give deep thought as to where and when they leverage the platform.</p><p>Especially given what we know from <strong><a href="https://flipboard.com/@tech/the-whistleblower-behind-the-facebook-files-reveals-herself-tt0alok8077isp6o">the whistle-blower</a></strong>, who may be Facebook’s biggest threat in years.</p><p>Makes you wonder what kind of a backup plan the leaders at Facebook have.</p><p><br /></p><p>Thanks, and I'll see you on the internet.</p><p><br /></p><div><hr /></div><p>If you’re interested in hearing more about understanding trends and preparing for the future, tune into this episode of the <em><strong><a href="https://pod.link/timeless">Timeless Leadership</a></strong></em> on the topic of <strong><a href="https://www.timelesstimely.com/p/adaptability" target="_blank">Adaptability</a></strong> with Jeremiah Owyang:</p><p><iframe frameborder="0" height="170px" loading="lazy" scrolling="no" src="https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/timeless-leadership/adaptability-IqjdJen-6Yb/embed/" style="min-width: 100%; width: 1px;" width="100%"></iframe><br /></p><p><br /></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><hr /></div><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">👉 Premium Members receive an additional related essay, plus curated links and stories, and audio and book recommendations every Friday.<br /></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: center;">Join the club by signing up below:</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: center;"><iframe data-dashlane-frameid="1439" frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://www.timelesstimely.com/embed" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-color: rgb(238, 238, 238); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; max-height: 450px; max-width: 100%;" width="480"></iframe></div>

Leadership in an Uncertain Future

The Course of Empire - The Consummation of the Empire  by Thomas Cole, 1836 (public domain - Wikipedia) Timeless & Timely  has audio ve...

Read more »